Friday, May 8, 2015

Future of the nuclear power - Thorium , reprocessing and non-proliferation

Many guy around the net/written paper arguing about the future and benefit of the Thorium fuel cycle,  new reactor designs and so on.

Anyone who considering the Thorium as the near future of the nuclear power doesn't know the political motivation of the  governments around the world.


See Iran : they playing within the limits of the Nuclear non-proliferation rules ,but say no one likes them too much at the moment.

All that they try to do is to develop a full, fuel cycle with enrichment .

One important point: Iran doesn't has reprocessing capability, all noise / moaning from the US coming due to low enrichment capacity.


So see the Thorium fuel cycle in this light.

Why Thorium?

The main benefit of the Thorium is not connected to the abundance of it.
If we compare the thorium to the uranium (238) then the most important is from the u238 if one neutron captured by it then it will transmuted to Pu239.

If  Thorium 232  capture a neutron then if will transmuted to Uranium 233.

Both of them fissile, so if they get a neutron then there is high chance to split the nucleus, and generate new neutrons to sustain the reaction, but the U233 has HIGHER chance than the Pu239.

If the nucleus is not split , then it will became either u234 or Pu240, neither of them fissile .

But the chance higher for the Pu.


So essentially the breeding ratio of the reaction better, for each neutron you get more neutron with U233 than with Pu239.


It means that you can modify the current light water reactors (used everywhere around the world) to closed Thorium cycle.


BUT we have Iran.


Closed cycle means reprocessing capability.

That is only one step away from the bomb material.

Other interesting, promising technology:

Molten salt reactor.

Light, non pressurised ,cheap, and has high efficiency.

It is the only reactor type, where the fuel is accessible during the cycle for reprocessing, so it possible to remove all Caesium ,Strontium so on from it that can contaminate the environment in the event of accident.


But here is the non-proliferation risk in one world: continuous reprocessing.


Sunday, May 3, 2015

Return Of Investment in relationship with the size of the saving, and eigenstates/chaotic attractors Links:

Hypothesis:
The consumption share from the GDP will fall if the Return On Investment for small savers will be significantly lower than for big savers

Past value of the difference between small saver and big saver ROI can be calculated easily.

Best example the consumption share from the GDP decreased dramatically between 2000-2015 in China.
For a long-time Mr Pettis arguing about that the lower than inflation interest rate was a hidden channel to transfer money from the consumers to  the investors.

If someone try to correlate the average wealth of any individual in China with the average yearly interest then I'm 85% sure it will be highly correlated.


Obviously if we want to calculate it for the future then it is a different kind of matter.

At the moment we are in an eigenstate, chaotic attractor or whatever you wean to call it.

The process periodicity falling back to the eigenstate, so to calculate the ROI easy, it simply following a normal distribution in the given eigenstate.


However as soon we will move out from this eigenstate it will change dramatically
Examples:
1917 Great October Revolution - need any expőlanation? Prior of it the Czar was a low risk borrower, after it the ROI became 0 :)
-Collapse of the EU
-Change in the interest rate policy in China
-Policy change toward stronger union and worker's  rights in Japan or Germany
and so on.

All of them or certain partial combination of them will bring the system toward a new eigenstate.

Links:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PETC.ZS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eigenvalues_and_eigenvectors